Edward Chancellor Capital Returns Investing Through the Capital Cycle a Money Manager’s Reports 2002-15

June 13, 2018 | Author: admirenicelegs | Category:Economic Bubble
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CAPITAL RETURNS
Wall Street’s Wheel of Fortune (illustration by David Foldvari)
C A PIT AL R ET UR NS INVESTING THROUGH THE CAPITAL CYCLE: A MONEY MANAGER’S REPORTS 2002–15 Edited by
EDWARD CHANCELLOR
© Marathan Asset Management LLP 2016 © Intoduction Edward Chancellor 2016 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission
No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS
Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages
The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988
First published 2016 by PALGRAVE Palgrave in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of 4 Crinan Street, London N1 9XW Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010
Palgrave is the global imprint of the above companies and is represented throughout the world
Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries ISBN 978-1-349-55541-3 ISBN 978-1-137-57165-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-137-57165-6 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Catalogingin-Publication Data Capital returns : investing through the capital cycle : a money manager’s reports 2002–15 / Edward Chancellor
pages cm 1. Business cycles. 2. Marathon Asset Management. 3. Speculation. I. Chancellor, Edward, 1962– editor. II. Marathon Asset Management
HB3711.C353 2015 332.6—dc23 2015025955
C ON TEN TS
List of Charts, Illustrations and Tables Foreword
viii x
Preface
xii
Introduction by Edward Chancellor Part I
1
Investment Philosophy
1
Capital Cycle Revolution 1.1 Evolution of cooperation (February 2004) 1.2 Cod philosophy (August 2004) 1.3 This time’s no different (May 2006) 1.4 Supercycle woes (May 2011) 1.5 No small beer (February 2010) 1.6 Oil peak (February 2012) 1.7 Major concerns (March 2014) 1.8 A capital cycle revolution (March 2014) 1.9 Growth paradox (September 2014)
25 25 28 31 33 37 40 43 45 48
2
Value in Growth 2.1 Warning labels (September 2002) 2.2 Long game (March 2003) 2.3 Double agents (June 2004) 2.4 Digital moats (August 2007) 2.5 Quality time (August 2011) 2.6 Escaping the semis’ cycle (February 2013) 2.7 Value in growth (August 2013) 2.8 Quality control (May 2014) 2.9 Under the radar (February 2015)
52 53 55 58 60 62 65 68 70 73
3
Management Matters 3.1 Food for thought (September 2003) 3.2 Cyclical missteps (August 2010)
76 76 80

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